President Donald Trump is keen about winning. He has currently been winning deals, wars, elections, and as such he has been making headlines. Experts, however, do seem rather skeptical about his latest obsession, a proposal of $500 billion windfall from Ukraine’s natural resources. President Trump is suggesting that the U.S. should recoup its aid to Ukraine through a massive revenue share in its critical minerals. Despite Ukraine promising that there could possibly be valuable minerals, perhaps there are no valuable minerals to be found. There could also be no windfall and no deal at all.
Understanding more about the myth behind Ukraine’s rare earth riches
A core proponent of President Trump’s proposed deal is a joint U.S.-Ukraine “reconstruction investment fund,” which according to the President would allow the U.S. to recover 50% of revenue from Ukrainian state-owned natural resource assets. The entire idea does sound highly profitable, and President Trump’s zeal is evident as he even floated around with the idea that the U.S. could claim up to $500 billion from this arrangement. However, experts are insistent that the entire premise of Ukraine’s earth’s riches is built on a foundation of fiction.
Laura Lewis, a chemical and mechanical engineering professor at Northeastern University who studies critical minerals, said that there’s, “no credible evidence” that Ukraine has economically viable rare earth deposits. Geological surveys indicate that while there are some areas with rare earth ore—Yastrubetske, Novopoltavske, Azovske, and Mazurivske, these areas are, however, outdated Soviet-era findings or are located in war-torn regions under Russian control.
Further suggestions state that even if these resources were accessible, building the infrastructure to extract these resources would take at least 15 years and that too assuming there was no war in Ukraine at all.
More about Trump’s rare earth obsession
Assuming that the resources are not there, then why is President Trump obsessed with the possibility of finding these rare earths? The President does continue to think like a businessman and is working towards finding an asset and selling a dream. The entire deal may very well benefit the U.S. financially and will strengthen the President’s position of being quite the savvy negotiator.
Citizens are concerned that perhaps that fact EVs could disappear in America at the hands of China is another motivating factor as to why the President is so fixated on the idea of finding rare earths in Ukraine. Melissa Sanderson, a former U.S. diplomat described how ironic it is that the U.S. is looking everywhere for rare earths when it has plenty of rare earths within its own borders—California, Texas, Georgia. Looking for rare earths in Ukraine could cost more and be riskier.
Why the reluctance towards this rare earth deal?
During the Oval Office press conference on February 28 tension erupted over the proposed Ukraine deal with critics suggesting the deal was never about the rare earth. The entire spectacle, as well as the vague outlines of an agreement, suggests a more pragmatic decision. At this point, President Trump’s $500 billion dream seems to rest on air.
There is a suggestion that this entire proposal may be a distraction and a way for the U.S. to move away from pressing domestic and global issues. Despite the criticism, some Americans view the project’s strength and the President’s strategic move towards gaining economic dominance in an increasingly volatile world.
While there is much fuss about this deal, the deal may bring nothing more than more questions in the end. There is speculation that these rare earths may not be retrieved in Ukraine at all. Although these minerals may not be real, President Trump’s obsession may very well be real. While the President is pushing forward his rare earth finding mission many car manufacturers are becoming more curious about a low emission engine that is rare earth free and 200 kW.