In five years, the world’s politics and the way most of Europe conducts commerce are expected to change drastically as the Arctic region and the South Pole are getting warmer, and a new phenomenon is about to occur. Even with all the innovations in transportation technology, cars, trucks, planes, the European Maritime Safety Agency estimates that 80-90% of global trade is made by sea, making ocean shipping the most important in an integral part of commerce. Essentially, ships are used to transport raw materials, but they are also used to import and export food.
Global warming puts the Arctic in danger
After years of studying how to make this more environmentally friendly, scientists have found a new way to conduct commerce, but it comes with a high price. The Arctic Ocean is located at the North Pole and is surrounded by the most powerful nations in the world, including Russia, Canada, and the United States (Alaska). Exploring the region could be a breakthrough for commerce purposes, and due to the global heat, they may have the chance in a couple of years.
The Earth is getting warmer each year due to the high levels of carbon emissions in the atmosphere, which are destroying the ozone layer, a protective layer that shields humans from ultraviolet radiation. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms that in 2024, the temperature rose 1.55°C above the pre-industrial revolution level, making it the warmest year ever recorded.
Arctic Ocean to become navigable by 2029
The global temperature is expected to continue to rise if governments and companies fail to implement strict measures to reduce industrial production in order to achieve carbon neutrality in a couple of years. The damage might be irreversible and will hurt not only humans in the long run but also plants, animals, and other living organisms.
Months after confirming that last year was the warmest in over a century, the WMO warned that the Arctic is melting 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world, and the temperature is expected to rise by 2.4°C in the next five years, at least. This phenomenon has profound consequences for the world’s future geopolitical scenario, with new routes opening for shipping and military vessels to navigate the freezing waters in the Arctic Ocean.
The effect on world geopolitics
The concern over the area has become a new frontier for geopolitical competition, as highlighted by the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy in a statement, even though he is thousands of miles away from England. On the other hand, the Arctic ice melt can push up the sea levels around Britain’s coastline, increasing the chances of flooding occurring. Russia would be the country that benefits the most from the region, gaining access to the Eastern European waters more easily, and this may lead to political tensions between coastal countries and Russia.
The future problems became the present issues
Nations, governments, and private sector companies have been studying ways to minimize the impacts of global warming for decades. In 2015, the Paris Agreement, signed by 175 countries, had the goal of preventing the temperature from rising 2°C above the pre-industrial revolution levels. At the time, the number was considered a long shot, and many scientists believed that humans would not reach this mark in decades.
The biggest revolution to try to minimize the damage to the ozone layer lies in discovering alternative energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal. Many are still in the development phase, like hydrogen engines, but electrical and hybrid powertrains are a reality, and in the next couple of years, the world should rely more on these types of energy than on fossil-based energy.