Hydrogen is a fuel substance that has been for decades hailed as the number one future of vehicles because it is sustainable and only emits water, making it suitable for the world that is going green. However, Toyota, a car brand that has been part of this hydrogen praise, is starting to doubt the same fuel substance. Besides the positives that come with hydrogen, it has been indicating some threats and challenges.
The future was expected to be fuel cell electric vehicles or FCEVs, and Toyota was undoubtedly the leading proponent of this technology. It guaranteed no hazardous emissions from the tailpipe and fill-ups as simple as pouring petrol into a car with a traditional combustion engine. However, as we discovered earlier in 2024, having a hydrogen-powered vehicle is a huge hassle, at least in the US.
Sales Stumble: The market’s actual situation with hydrogen vehicles
Hydrogen vehicles, including Toyota, have struggled to advance in the market this past year and generate the revenue they wanted. Due to the closure of filling stations and the sharp increase in hydrogen prices, owners are being forced to take extra care to keep their zero-emission cars functioning. This has also caused sales to stumble and decline; this is far beyond what Toyota expected.
This underperformance has been caused by several factors, including high production costs, a lack of refuelling infrastructure, and fierce competition from electric vehicles (EVs). Initially, Toyota believed that hydrogen would provide a cleaner and faster refuelling alternative to electric vehicles, and consumers seemed to have been inclined to this whole idea of rapid refuelling and suitability too, but something is wrong.
Toyota’s dream of a hydrogen car is disintegrating and becoming a nightmare
Sales figures by the end of 2024 indicate that Toyota’s ambition of a hydrogen-powered vehicle is all but gone. Just 134 FCEVs were sold globally by the Japanese manufacturer in November, according to the most recent sales data. Compared to the same month last year, that is an 8.2% drop. Looking at the year-to-date numbers, however, makes matters considerably worse.
Toyota sold 1,702 hydrogen fuel cell cars globally between January and November, a 54% decrease from the previous year. 2024 may be the worst year for Toyota FCEV sales since 2017, given that December is often a quiet month for sales because of the winter holidays. For comparison, the carmaker notes that 2020 was the slowest year for FCEV sales, with 1,770 vehicles sold globally — though that year the Covid pandemic was in full swing, meaning 2024 is on course to undercut even that figure.
Infrastructure issues: Hydrogen technology’s Achilles’ heel
Hydrogen has always had issues with storage and infrastructure. Those are part of the reasons why some automakers stopped producing it and why others want to stop because it is costly and there is no solution yet to the problem. This has created a problematic cycle throughout the years and has caused customers to withdraw from purchasing vehicles with hydrogen because of these issues.
Toyota has invested considerably in creating hydrogen refueling networks in major regions including Japan and California. However, progress has been slow, and EV charging networks have advanced at a much faster pace. This mismatch has caused Toyota to reevaluate its strategy. Furthermore, the hydrogen ecosystem is still limited despite government backing in several nations.
Nevertheless, an increasing number of automakers have declared their plans to produce new hydrogen-powered vehicles soon, arguing that the market would eventually expand as a result of more petrol stations and cheaper hydrogen. Honda is now offering the CR-V e:FCEV, a plug-in hybrid SUV, while BMW plans to introduce a mass-market FCEV in 2028.
According to Toyota sources, despite the difficulties, the company has not abandoned hydrogen for passenger cars. In October of last year, Toyoda and his counterpart at longstanding rival Hyundai discussed collaborating to develop fuel cell vehicles. They supported their wager on the Prius, which was originally offered for sale in 1997, by drawing comparisons to the ten years of patience required before hybrid sales took off.