A country’s influence has grown from its military capabilities alone. A fortified economy, quality of life for its citizens, and a plethora of other aspects now add to its influence. A particularly large element is energy. This is why two of the world’s superpower states have entered negotiations for a pipeline project that might see their influence grow even more.
How this pipeline project will work
This deal is about scale and volume. This pivot comes at a crucial time for Russia because of sanctions against it and limited access to European markets. Moscow has turned to the east for its energy exports, and China has an insatiable need for this. China is looking to reduce its reliance on coal, and so this deal aids both nations quite well.
The deal will be challenging to execute as the proposed pipeline must cut through Mongolia, requiring extensive construction over terrain that will be challenging to work with. Financing this pipeline is also another area of interest, as this project will cost tens of billions of dollars according to early estimates. The burden of harvesting this has also not been determined, but China has always pushed for favorable terms in deals of this nature, and Russia is at present being isolated, which does not put this country in an advantageous position to negotiate terms like this.
A gas pipeline between two superpowers, and how much gas will be exported by Russia to China
The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will carry up to 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. To better understand the magnitude of this, consider for a moment how one cubic meter of gas equals 1,000 liters. In essence, a yearly flow could reach up to 50 trillion liters, although initial reports allude to a figure closer to 38 trillion liters.
The economic benefits of this pipeline project are one thing, but the geopolitical weight of this project is irrefutable. This pipeline project would cement the ties between Russia and China, an alignment that has Western policymakers feeling hot around the collar. Russia may at one point have been Europe’s largest energy client, and so as it looks to a different ally for its energy needs, as worries around how long and beneficial this will be for both Moscow and Beijing are growing. This partnership could grow into a bloc that might rival the influence of America.
The pipeline project promises years of cooperation, but this won’t be reached easily
The first Power of Siberia pipeline project is now being looked at closely as the second is being negotiated. The first project was completed in 2019, but years of debating were endured before this. Everything from the routes, the pricing, and the finances was a point of contention. China very seldom makes things easy, and those same concerns are prevalent with this new proposed pipeline deal.
Some critics think this project will remain a visionary concept that may not come to pass. Delays over price have sparked these concerns. Whether China has the immediate need for this much gas is a factor being looked at more closely, as China has a diverse energy portfolio with an emphasis on renewables. The long-term appeal of this pipeline project still can’t be overlooked, as this deal would secure needs in this regard for half a century.
If the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is constructed, China and Russia would be locked into a deal that would insulate China’s energy needs and see Russia turn away from Europe even more than it already has. This pipeline is about more than energy, power, and leverage also hangs in the balance.