By now, we all know that green is the new black. In fact, the entire world has been transitioning to greener energy solutions in an attempt to mitigate the effects of global warming. China has been the top dog in that department, but now the country has triggered a global alarm. It has a new capacity of 94.5 GW currently under construction, but this capacity is not what the world expected, especially in the push forward to achieve a greener and sustainable planet. It could have severe consequences.
Unexpected move from the global leader in renewable energy
According to The Renewable Energy Institute, China already achieved one of its climate targets five years ahead of schedule after surpassing its 2030 renewable energy goal. This achievement is attributed to the country’s total installed renewable capacity, which now stands at 56% of the country’s total capacity. China had a combined renewable energy capacity of 1.889 TW by late 2024.
The majority of this combined capacity consists of solar and wind power, with China having 887,000 MW of solar and 521,000 MW of wind power capacity, respectively. These key figures are indicative that China plans on achieving its main climate target of carbon neutrality by 2060. During a climate conference in April this year, President Xi Jinping stated that:
“Instead of talking the talk, we must walk the walk… we must turn our goals into tangible results.”
China has shown its commitment to honor the global and its national climate targets, but its latest move has triggered a global alarm, as the construction of its new capacity is not what the world expected.
China’s 94.5 GW of new capacity is already under construction
According to CarbonBrief, China’s impressive expansion of low-carbon power in its energy mix was expected to supply new demand and decrease the reliance on coal in the system. This was guided by a policy known as “establish [new systems] before breaking [old ones].”
Then the unexpected happened. China started construction of 94.5 GW of new coal-power capacity and resumed 3.3 GW of suspended projects in 2024. This marked the country’s highest level of construction in the past decade, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM). In 2023, China accounted for 95% of global new coal construction.
A high amount of new capacity is expected in the coming years, with coal becoming a major power source, according to Carbon Brief. This unprecedented move, driven by the coal-mining sector’s investment, has resulted in critical concerns.
Its consequences could be worse than you think
According to the Centre for Research on Clean Air and Energy, the Chinese government is constructing its “dual control” system to realise its “dual carbon” goals, which are peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and then achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This dual goal will thus allow emissions to rise until 2028 or 2029, with 2030’s absolute emissions expected to be significantly higher than in 2024.
The consequence could be that the carbon-intensity commitment gets cast aside. According to CarbonBrief, experts also predict the following consequences:
- Renewable energy will become a supplementary power source to coal
- Renewable developers could face price fluctuations and uncertain demand
- New capacity for coal-power plants will limit the available grid space for renewables
- Renewables will struggle to gain a significant market share
CREA and GEM added that this swift coal-power development will become a significant obstacle to China’s high-level climate commitments, including decreasing coal use. They believe that several policies could guide China back onto a greener path, which include halting new coal plant approvals, as well as power market and grid reform. While the decision is questionable, it could allow the U.S. to beat China in its silent war, as America could use this to place itself in a favorable geopolitical position.