March 2026 is running about six degrees above normal in Houston — a gap wide enough to make local meteorologists uneasy before summer has even arrived. It’s not an isolated blip. Four of the last ten warmest summers on record here have fallen within just the past four years.
Now a new variable is entering the picture: a potentially powerful El Niño forming in the tropical Pacific, one that early modeling suggests could rank among the two strongest in the last 40 years. What that means for Houston’s next two summers is still unfolding.
Four years, four top-ten summers: Houston’s warming streak
The numbers tell a straightforward story. Every summer for the past four years has ranked among Houston’s ten warmest on record, measured by average temperature — the mean of daily highs and lows. That kind of sustained consistency isn’t noise. It’s a pattern.
The peak came in 2023, when Houston’s average summer temperature hit 88.0°F, setting an all-time record. Last summer, 2024, ranked sixth at 86.0°F. Both years sit near the top of a list that keeps getting rewritten.
March 2026 is adding to the unease. Temperatures running roughly six degrees above normal this early in the year are, at minimum, a notable signal — and NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook predicts above-normal temperatures for the region this summer, though not dramatically so. The trend suggests the baseline itself keeps shifting upward.
El Niño is building — and it could be historic
Layered on top of that trend is a developing weather phenomenon with global reach. A warmer phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, is increasingly likely to emerge by summer 2025 and peak by the end of the year. The latest modeling suggests this could be one of the two strongest El Niño events recorded in the past 40 years.
El Niño’s effects aren’t confined to the Pacific. The periodic warming of that ocean exerts upward pressure on global surface temperatures, with consequences felt across continents. Researchers and climate communicators tracking the phenomenon through NOAA data have documented its broad reach across weather systems worldwide.
A strong event in isolation would be significant enough. One of potentially record strength arriving on top of an already warming baseline is a different situation altogether.
Why 2026 may be hot — but 2027 could be worse
Here’s where the timing gets complicated. Global surface temperatures don’t respond to El Niño instantaneously — the thermal response typically lags the peak by a couple of months. Since the current El Niño isn’t expected to peak until late 2025, the summer of 2026 will likely feel only part of its effect.
That means 2027 could bear the full brunt.
Even without the complete El Niño signal, 2026 is still expected to rank among Houston’s warmest summers ever. Four consecutive top-ten summers provide enough momentum to make that a reasonable forecast. But the delayed thermal response suggests the worst heat may not arrive until a full year after El Niño reaches its peak intensity — a slow-moving setup whose conditions won’t fully express themselves for another 12 to 18 months.
What the near-term forecast reveals
The broader pattern is already visible in Houston’s day-to-day weather. This week, the city is seeing mid-to-upper-80s highs, modest humidity, and essentially no rain — conditions that feel more like early May than late March. Fog is likely during overnight and early morning hours, adding to the unseasonable feel.
A weak front is expected to push into the Houston area Friday night or Saturday morning, bringing brief relief and nudging highs into the 70s for the weekend, with lows possibly dipping into the 50s. Meaningful precipitation is unlikely.
The first real chance of rainfall doesn’t appear until the following week, with model guidance pointing toward increasing chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. Confidence remains low at that range.
The persistent warmth and dryness aren’t just a forecast curiosity. They reflect the same pattern meteorologists are watching at a much larger scale — a region running hotter and drier than its historical norms, earlier and earlier in the year.
What to watch as the year unfolds
The immediate question is whether this summer crosses into record territory on its own, before El Niño’s full influence arrives. Given the existing trend and the above-normal March temperatures, that possibility isn’t remote.
The larger question is what 2027 brings. If El Niño peaks as strongly as current modeling suggests, and the lagged temperature response plays out as expected, Houston could be looking at conditions that make even 2023’s record summer feel like a reference point rather than an outlier.
For now, the signals are early and the uncertainty is real. But the direction of travel has been consistent for four years running — and the factors that could accelerate it are already in motion.