Southern California’s weather has been quite different recently. The hot summer weather that dominated much of the year has given way to cool mornings, breezy afternoons, and limited low-lying clouds in many places.
At LAX, forecasters said Thursday afternoon the Marine Layer (low-lying clouds) was just 1,300 ft thick.
Along the Central Coast, there is a better chance of marine clouds due to a stronger cloud layer forming farther north.
Although Tropical Cyclone Marie will remain well offshore, it can still affect Southern California’s weather through the weekend and into early next week.
Cooler weather has replaced the warm summer temperatures
Thursday was another clear day across Southern California. Highs ranged from the 70s and 80s. Most inland areas ran 5-12 degrees lower than average highs for early September.
Onshore breezes have continued to blow across the entire region. Southwest Santa Barbara County had its second round of Sundowner Winds.
Clouds from the marine layer were included in the forecast, though their presence was not expected to be widespread.
Forecasters thought the best chances of getting low-level clouds during late evening and morning hours would exist along the Central Coast.
A trough of low pressure moving into Oregon and northern California could bring a slight chance of light rain to parts of the Central Coast through Friday morning. However, for most people, that is no longer the main focus.
Attention is quickly turning to Marie and how it might impact the area during the long Labor Day weekend.
Confidence in forecasts is very good through Sunday
According to the National Weather Service, Tropical Cyclone Marie is expected to remain offshore while still influencing weather conditions across Southern California through the weekend. The National Weather Service predicts that Marie will move WNW, keeping her center away from the California coastline.
However, she is predicted to send additional moisture towards Southern California.
Temperatures will remain close to seasonal values; however, increased humidity could make things feel hotter than they did earlier in the week.
The first chance for precipitation may be Saturday night, mainly within Los Angeles County. Rain probabilities increase Sunday when moist air moves into the area.
Current forecast probability indicates that the highest probabilities for rain will be in Los Angeles County, where the probability ranges from 40% to 50%.
Probabilities drop off to 25% to 50% in Ventura County and continue to decline farther north in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Also, forecasters predict a 5% to 15% chance of thunderstorms over Los Angeles County by Sunday afternoon.
Light rainfall amounts are expected (trace to 0.25 inches); however, isolated areas may receive up to 0.5 inches.
Larger impacts may come at the beach
While rain has captured much of the attention lately, forecasters think that the greatest impacts from Marie will be felt at local beaches.
An intensifying south-southwest swell associated with the storm is predicted to build through the weekend.
Current predictions suggest swell sizes of approximately 5 to 8 feet, which would generate comparable wave sizes along exposed south-facing beaches. Locations like Malibu could see larger waves.
Hazardous surf and rip currents may become concerns for crowds headed to the beach for Labor Day.
High Surf Advisories have been issued for Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Portions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties have Beach Hazard Statements.
The ocean may not be done yet
Additionally, higher tide levels through early next week are being monitored by forecasters.
When combined with an incoming swell, these high-water levels could lead to coastal flooding in vulnerable areas such as Long Beach, Malibu, Point Mugu, and Avalon. By Tuesday, confidence begins to degrade.
Forecast models begin to disagree with one another, creating uncertainty regarding temperature trends and rain probabilities later in the week.
For now, forecasters are more confident about the weekend: Southern California will probably stay cooler than normal, while moisture from Marie brings a chance of light rain and hazardous coastal conditions.
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